Tech and (TCLABZ) was born out of the disruptive innovation realization that insight could be extracted from the temporal, semantic, dynamic predictive analysis of the search for answers from the millions of people online trying to figure out what is going on, what might happen next, and what if I do “X” instead of “Y”?
We believe in the wisdom of the crowd to provide a fast, efficient, consistent basis for evaluating technology opportunities and risks across alternative views of the global business future.
We see scenario analysis as a powerful qualitative partner to the heavy lifting quantitative analysis of energy fundamentals of supply and demand.
Capturing the wisdom of the crowd through advanced analytics techniques of temporal analysis of web search trends, the semantic analysis of web text, and the predictive analysis of patterns in the ‘hum’ of conversation across the community filters and synthesizes the data and helps us turn see patterns and then trends and turn it into insight.
Scenario planning is about proactively managing uncertainty about the future. Strategic decisions require testing ideas and options across alternative business environments. Scenario analysis provides the consistent framework for this critical thinking. The hands-on involvement of key decision makers forces issues and uncertainty to the surface in search of the “sweet spots” of strategy that make all the difference to success.
But the lesson we learned from listening to the wisdom of the crowd is that the process of building scenarios and creating communities is often more powerful than the actual resulting scenarios themselves because they create a common language to assess opportunities and risk under uncertainty and strip away the conventional wisdom that prevent us from seeing the future with fresh eyes. We invite you to be part of a new predictive business analytics trend that uses the wisdom of the crowd to rehearse your energy future pushing your team for insight beyond your mind’s previous reach.
Scenario analysis provides the amazing power of ‘what if?’
We see examples of disruptive change turning the energy industry on its head. Look no further than the dramatic growth in unconventional oil and gas domestic energy production in the US.
- Changing Environmental Regulation. We have seen the dominance of coal fired generation erode as a wave of new US EPA-driven emission reduction rules force coal plant retirements and prevent new construction even while low priced natural gas takes market share and renewable portfolio standards drive growth of wind and solar energy.
- From Natural Gas Rapid Depletion Rates to Shale Gas Boom. The US has gone from a looming importer of LNG to replace its depleting natural gas reserves to a new exporter of LNG to project shale gas into higher priced global markets.
- Ruthless Global Energy Competition. We see ruthless global competition of exports from China collapse solar power markets in Spain and Germany and threaten US producers with falling prices. Oversupply of PV panels created a ripple effect around the world as manufacturers sold PV panels below cost. The next generation technology of utility scale concentrating solar power (CSP) was undermined by falling PV prices. Scenario analysis is a powerful tool to anticipate and rehearse a response to such events before they happen.
The recession has shaken most companies out their old patterns, and required tough choices, but it does not help those same managers define what to do next. Scenario analysis is the business economics equivalent of war games enabling managers to stress test strategy opportunities and risk exposures across alternative business futures.
War games require good ‘intel’ to prepare for the combat of competitive global markets. Participants in a scenario planning process become invested in the company’s future they help imagine and fight to defend. A successful scenario planning process is open, intellectually stimulating, and highly interactive. The structured process helps develop rich and credible views about the evolving marketplace. Input from individuals with a wide range of perspectives (or different frames of reference) on critical business uncertainties ensures that the resulting scenarios capture the full breadth of plausible futures to challenge conventional wisdom.
The scenario process can be informed from trend analysis looking at the dynamic patterns of web interactions to extract information, organize it into patterns and assess those patterns for trends. The combination of predictive analytics and crowdsourcing are the perfect laboratory environment for scenario analysis. The qualitative power of scenario analysis can be combined with the quantitative modeling of energy market supply and demand fundamentals that creates a powerful platform for strategy and risk analysis and aligns your business team to play ‘what if’ with the same skill as a seasoned submarine captain in a Tom Clancy novel.